CATARC Zhu Xianglei: Chinese Truck’s Excess Capacity Approximate 50%

www.chinatrucks.com: Director of Data and Resource Center of China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC) Zhu Xianglei recently says at the China Special Vehicle Development Forum (Suizhou) 2013 on October 19 that China’s truck industry gets gradual recovery compared to last year but the export and import data declines and the capacity is excess. The development of new-energy truck is in urgent need.

Chinese truck industry gets gradual recovery but the import and export data declines.

Zhu Xianglei says that from January to September 2013, Chinese trucks accumulate to sell 2.63 million units, up by 7.2% year on year.

With respect to export, since the access to WTO in 2001, the export of trucks increases rapidly. The financial crisis in 2008 leads to a dramatic drop of truck exports, yet it turns better and better with the upturn of international macro economy.

In the first eight months of 2013, the trucks exported total 220,000 units, down by 12.3% year on year, mainly due to international turbulence and uprising protectionism in some countries.

With respect to import, the market presents a clear cyclic period with 4 years as a cycle. Owing to rising demands for high-level trucks, the import of trucks has been maintaining at a higher level from 2010 to 2012.

In the first eight months, China accumulates to import 9000 units, down by 41.99% year on year. The decline of 20t and above trucks is the largest.

The capacity is excessive approximate 50%.

According to Zhu Xianglei, in 2010, the rapid growth of automotive lightens the whole market and all manufacturers are passionate to expand production and increase investment, thus expanding the production of commercial vehicle in a large scale.

In his opinion, HD, MD, LD and micro trucks without exception suffer severe over capacity, leading to an insufficient use of production and increase in operation costs. To lower down the costs, acquisition and purchase are inevitable among truck manufacturers.

The current capacity is around 2 million units for HD and MD trucks, but the actual demand is only about 1 million units; in 2011, the capacity of light trucks is between 2.6 million to 5 million and it will be 4 million to 4.5 million units by 2015, but the actual demand is only 2 million units; micro trucks have a capacity of 1-1.5 million units but the actual demands are only 0.6 million units.

Sales of NG HD trucks is tripled but new-energy truck is in urgent need of breaking the ice

Zhu Xianglei discloses that the NG HD truck as a new-energy product superior to diesel HD truck in terms of emission is growing fast in the past two years. In the first eight months of 2013, the sales volume reaches 23,000 units, tripled over last year. The sales volume in 2013 is estimated to be 35,000 units. Most NG HD trucks are NG tractors.

Despite of rapid development in recent years, the new-energy truck is still in urgent need of breaking the ice. The prospect of new-energy trucks is not clear. Pure electric special vehicles are in face of many problems. Some associated facilities are not completed such as charging stations.

Currently, the development technology of electric trucks is complicated and imperfect, and the cost is very high. For users who make a fortune depending on trucks are less attractive due to high costs. Besides, the expanded range of battery and charging time will limit the efficiency of transportation.

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